Swine Flu Pandemic Not Over Yet, The Who Says

Thomas H. Maugh II

The New York Times

June 3, 2010

Confounding expectations, an emergency committee of the World Health Organization unanimously recommended Thursday that the H1N1 influenza pandemic remain at the highest level of the agency's alert scale, Phase 6. The committee will confer again in July to reassess its recommendation when data from the winter influenza season in the Southern Hemisphere become available.

"We're still in the pandemic," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said.

Because of sharp declines in swine flu activity around the world, many observers had expected the 15-member committee of experts, whose members are anonymous, to declare that the pandemic was in its "post-peak" phase, or even in its "post-pandemic" phase, which would mean that the pandemic was over.

But a statement from WHO Director-General Margaret Chan noted that, while "the period of most intense pandemic appears likely to have passed for many parts of the world," activity is continuing in some areas and many people remain vulnerable. The virus is most active in parts of Southeast Asia and the Caribbean, but experts fear a further outbreak.

Many critics have charged the agency with overreacting to the emergence of the virus, particularly because symptoms have generally been mild, but experts continue to warn that a small mutation in the virus could cause it to spread more rapidly or to become more lethal. To date, 18,000 deaths from laboratory-confirmed infections have occurred, but most experts think the true number is several times higher.

New Numbers for Swine Flu

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.

The New York Times 

Published: March 12, 2010

About 12,000 Americans died from swine flu between its emergence last April until mid-February, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated on Friday. While swine flu is still being transmitted at low levels and some people still die of it, the third wave that experts had said was possible has not emerged, and is looking unlikely. Seasonal flu activity has been unusually low this winter, suggesting that the H1N1 swine flu strain “crowded out” the usual seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 strains. Little of the third seasonal strain, influenza B, which usually arrives late in flu season, has been seen in the United States. Swine flu has infected 42 million to 86 million people, the C.D.C. estimated.

Swine Flu Poised For Third Wave

Digital News Report – While the number of swine-flu cases has been leveling-off, some health care officials are worried that the virus is poised for a third wave. There were no deaths from the H1N1 in Nevada last week, but officials in San Antonio Texas say they expect a third wave.

The vaccine is readily available, but few people are taking advantage of the opportunity to get vaccinated. Officials in San Antonio are warning citizens to not be “complacent”.

The San Antonio Express reports that Metropolitan Health District officials have seen a rise in patients with respiratory illness. Since H1N1 has been the most the most prevalent type of flu they expect most of the new samples to test positive for the disease.

“We might be seeing the early stage of what might be a third wave” of swine flu, Dr. Bryan Alsip said. “We’ll know for certain whether they are new cases of flu or RSV (the common respiratory syncytial virus) or something else … probably by the end of the week.”

CDC Says Swine Flu Now Widespread in Only 4 States

Health Highlights: Jan. 1, 2010

The Palm Beach Post - Health  

The H1N1 swine flu outbreak continues to subside in the United States, with just four states now reporting widespread cases, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday.That's a decline from seven states reporting widespread cases last week, and a continuance of a decline in prevalence since H1N1 infections peaked in late October, with 48 states reporting widespread illness at the time. 

The four states still reporting high H1N1 activity are Delaware, Maine, New Jersey and Virginia, the CDC said. 

The agency notes that visits to physicians for flu-like illness did rise slightly over the past week, the first such rise after eight consecutive weeks of decline. Rates of hospitalization for influenza remained unchanged, although the CDC says the number of deaths linked to pneumonia and influenza did rise.